Debt ceiling deal: five fragile pieces of the puzzle - Politico

If a path exists to raise the debt ceiling, it has been terribly difficult to see in the middle of the rancor in Washington.

Democrats are worlds apart from the Republicans on taxes and spending. President Barack Obama said leaders of the Congress Thursday that he would veto a deal of deficit in the short term, eliminating an option flottée by the Republicans of the Senate to extend the limit of debt for a few months only, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.

Continue reading decision and Obama this week to expand a potential deal for $ 2 billion to as much as 4 billion over 10 years or more - while throwing the third rail of welfare in the talks if later in the game - could get a more difficult market.

But a mixture of political imperatives, the economic realities and personal Dynamics conclude an agreement before the date limit more probable than the rhetoric August 2 strong negotiators. The potential for a settlement will become clearer after a crucial Sunday meeting at the White House between the President and the leaders of the Congress.

If it happens, here are five factors that explain why the Congress and the White House could avoid a freeze on the nation borrowing power and a possible default on its debt first.

For Obama, failure is not an option.

Quite simply, the President has the most to lose if Congress does not raise the debt limit.

His main collaborators have already recognized that il "owns" the lagging economy. Since the economy will play a more important role in whether if he wins a second term, Obama a huge incentive to do anything to prevent its collapse, even if it means taking a smaller and less acceptable agreement.

At the same time, a prolonged standoff also would a commodity more protected from the White House: Mark Obama.

He ran in 2008 as the adult who would like to order an unruly Washington, a mediator who could move mortal enemies to cower on something. After two years discontent that has damaged the image, Obama tried mightily after the 2010 mid-term election losses to revive what works well in the past, attractive to the independent as a President above the partisan fray, and the power of the Congress is fighting.

President plays a practical role in negotiations as crunch time approaches. Thursday, it examined three scenarios with the leaders of the Congress: a measure in the short term of only a few months, he was opposed to. an agreement is worth about $ 2.5 trillion; and an agreement that exceed $ 4 trillion.

Leaders seem willing to try for the world's largest package, sources said. However, Senator Jon Kyl (R - Arizona) and House Leader of the majority Eric Cantor (R - VA.) asked how the parties would be estimated at 1 trillion dollars in tax revenues for a package of deficit of 4 trillion dollars, the sources said.

There is always a chance, if thin, that Obama could pull a Clinton, draw a hard line against Republicans as Bill Clinton did in 1995-96 budget confrontation. Obama could invoke the fourteenth amendment, order of the Treasury to continue to pay the debt, painting the Republicans as insoluble and allow voters to decide.

Until now, the White House however seems unwilling to go that route.