Analysis What is the company IBM systems? Based on my own model of income for the company, the answer is that sales of IBM systems each quarter, including servers, storage, systems operation and maintenance, is considerably higher than its quarterly statistics for the server sales. Much, in fact, business is much more stable than senior and quarterly bottom of server hardware company could lead believe you.
Because IBM likes to keep everyone guessing, society does not provide figures for revenue of its lines of three server - four if you count BladeCenter machines separately from System z mainframes, System x x 64 servers and iron Power Systems. IBM talks about how each row from the Server grows or shrinks each quarter and if you look carefully at its financial presentations, indicate what percentage of the overall systems revenues and IBM technology each quarter comes from servers and storage, what percentage of Group revenue comes from operating systems, and what percentage of overall Global Services revenue comes from maintenance of hardware and software.
If you do some initial assumptions, you can create a model of revenue for revenues from IBM server then auxiliary storage, operating systems and maintenance revenue to get taking into account that its core systems activities are really generate in terms of revenue for the company. I've set up my own template five years ago when stopped at Salomon Smith Barney and Merrill Lynch page top analysts extinguish their own models of sales of component for the IBM system for each quarter. I am not any claim as to the accuracy of the model, which I built, except that it integrates public data handed over by IBM, more or less.
Big Blue saw stories such as these numbers over the years and has not called yell at me, nor has offered to give me for data as it does with Gartner and IDC to help them build their models. So take the data I'm presenting here with two dashes of salt and some pepper. If you have built a better model, I am happy to compare notes, too.
With this model, here's what hardware server IBM looks, quarter by quarter, at the beginning of 2006, from the first three quarters of 2010:
Revenues from IBM, 2006 until 2010 server hardware
Best I can figure, IBM had $2. 77bn in hardware server in the third quarter, with 657 m $ coming from System z mainframes, $ 884 coming railway Power Systems and $ 1 m. 23bn coming from System x and BladeCenter x 64 servers.
As you can see, the quarterly sales of IBM systems is very spikey and System x boxes were particularly struck by the great depression in 2008 and early 2009. The Spurs for Power Systems revenues keep getting shorter and shorter as the years go and the Unix contracts as a result of the recession and more intense competition from fat Windows and Linux boxes.
Mainframe revenues have declined as a result of the recession as well, but have been hindered by the imminent announcement system zEnterprise 196 machines this year. One interesting bit is that, in the third quarter of 2009, x railway system almost matched Power Systems sales corresponded to the fourth quarter was beaten and matched the power platform since. The disparity was jarring to the third quarter of this year, when transitions really away Power7 line Power Systems and chip Xeon transitions were well behind Big Blue and other actors. System z sales have been on the back, throughout the year and are likely to be even higher in the fourth quarter, but it seems extremely little probable that they are close to the strike point four years ago. But it is possible. It seems absolutely impossible Power Systems hardware sales will get anywhere near to peak defined in the fourth quarter, three years ago, but he could do as well as at the end of 2008. We know in about a month.
Next page: play to its strengths
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